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Claims › Will a grand solar minimum cause a 'mini ice age'?

Will a grand solar minimum cause a 'mini ice age'?

Status: Leading Edge

The claim: A grand solar minimum like the Maunder Minimum is coming in the next decades and will cause a 'mini ice age' that cancels out global warming.

Why this label: Two parts need separating. (1) Whether a grand minimum will happen at all is a legitimate, Contested forecasting question, and at least one peer-reviewed model predicts one for cycles 26–27. (2) The 'mini ice age that cancels warming' part is Leading Edge. Every climate-model study we cite finds a global cooling of at most about 0.1–0.3 °C, far smaller than projected warming, and the 2019 paper most often cited for strong solar cooling was retracted.

Background

The Maunder Minimum (about 1645–1715) was a period with very few sunspots that coincided with cold European winters during the Little Ice Age. After the weak Cycle 24, some researchers forecast a new grand minimum. A 2015 principal-component study by Zharkova et al. predicted reduced activity in cycles 26–27, and online commentary turned that forecast into predictions of an imminent 'mini ice age'. Climate-model studies have tested what such a minimum would actually do to temperatures.

Evidence and arguments for

  • Zharkova et al. (2015) derived two magnetic-field principal components and extrapolated them. The result reproduced past minima, including the Maunder and Dalton minima, and forecast the next grand minimum for cycles 26–27. [1]
  • The Maunder Minimum is linked to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower Northern Hemisphere temperatures (as summarised by Feulner & Rahmstorf 2010). [2]
  • Ineson et al. (2015) found that a Maunder-like minimum by 2050 could produce noticeable regional winter cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern US. In their high-end ultraviolet scenario it was a significant fraction of the difference between greenhouse-gas scenarios for northern Europe. [3]

Evidence and arguments against

  • Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010): a 21st-century grand minimum would offset global temperature by no more than about −0.3 °C in 2100, which the authors judge to be much smaller than the expected greenhouse-gas warming. [2]
  • Ineson et al. (2015): global mean cooling of about 0.12–0.13 °C for 2050–2099, which the authors equate to delaying the warming trend by roughly two years. [3]
  • The 2019 Scientific Reports paper by Zharkova et al., often cited for a large solar-driven temperature effect, was retracted (Retraction Note published 4 March 2020). [4][5]
  • Solar Cycle 25 (smoothed peak 160.9) came in stronger than Cycle 24 (116.4). This does not rule out a future minimum, but it does not fit a steady slide into one. [6]

Open questions & what would change the label

Will cycles 26–27 actually be much weaker? That is testable within about 15 years. How large are the ultraviolet-driven regional effects? Ineson et al. note the uncertainty in solar spectral irradiance is the key unknown.

Sources

  1. Zharkova, V. V. et al. (2015). Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millennium timescale. Scientific Reports. doi:10.1038/srep15689 proponent
  2. Feulner, G. & Rahmstorf, S. (2010). On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2010GL042710 critic/test
  3. Ineson, S. et al. (2015). Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum. Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/ncomms8535 test
  4. Zharkova, V. V. et al. (2019). [RETRACTED] Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale. Scientific Reports. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-45584-3 retracted
  5. Retraction Note (2020): Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale. Scientific Reports. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-61020-3 retraction
  6. NOAA SWPC observed solar-cycle indices (JSON) https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/solar-cycle/observed-solar-cycle-indices.json data

Interest signal: Wikipedia 'Maunder Minimum' averaged 3,189 views/month and 'Dalton Minimum' 742 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026). Sources were checked against Crossref/publisher pages on 2026-10-21. Labels describe the claim, not the people who hold it. Disclaimer.